A Steep Surge In Prices
It's
not just the value of Missouri cropland that's rising. Corn Belt
farmland prices from Iowa to Illinois and Nebraska to Kansas have been
sky-high lately, boosted by $8-a-bushel corn.
"We
paid about $3.3 million for [about 650 acres] in Southeast Illinois in
2009," said Diggle, who is the CEO of Singapore-based Vulpes Investment
Management. The company handles $250 million of investor money, about 15
percent of which is in farmland.The
high commodity prices have helped encourage investors like Steve
Diggle, who have no connection to farming, to compete for their very own
acreage in the Heartland.
"This
year we sold it at auction and we got $5.1 million," he said, referring
to the Illinois farmland. "That's 55 percent higher than we paid. Plus
we got two yields — one of 3.5 percent and one of 5 percent. So, you
know, as an investment, that's 63 percent over three years. [It] is
great and we're extremely happy with it."
Diggle
says his firm also purchased a 1,400-acre tract in Illinois two years
ago. The company plans to hold on to it to make money through cash rents
and land appreciation.
"The
value of your land may go up or down. But as long as bond prices remain
where they are, it's very hard to see how we'll have a sustained bear
market for agriculture," Diggle said. By comparison, he said, the
extremely low returns in the bond market are "just so inferior."
A Safer Investment
You don't have to be a billionaire to invest in farmland.
Physics
professor Andy Trupin, who lives in Delray Beach, Fla., bought a
155-acre tract of farmland in Lebo, Kan., two years ago because it
looked like it would make him more money than gold or the stock market.
He also owns another tract that's primarily pastureland.
"Farmland
seemed like a much safer vehicle to get an income stream even though
... it's not a high-income stream. At least it's more than you would get
on Treasuries at any duration," Trupin said. "And at the same time,
[farmland offers] price appreciation or to at least [holds] its value in
the event of an inflation period."
The
investment has paid off so far, Trupin said. He rented out the land to a
local farmer who grows corn, soybeans and wheat. Even the brutal
drought failed to knock down the investment.
"Amazingly
we managed to get 20 bushels to the acre of corn even though the place
was as dry as Las Vegas last year," Trupin said. "I'm willing to let the
income from this thing fluctuate. In bad years, it's a slight loss —
maybe a couple of thousand on the year — and in good years, you gain up
to $10,000 on it."
Trupin
found the land online and got help purchasing it by Realty Executives
of Kansas City. The company says 90 percent of its new customers are
investors like Trupin, and it holds seminars for investors that walk
them through the process of evaluating and buying farmland and how to
find local farmers to rent the land.
"There's
probably a higher percentage now of people who are strictly investors,
stock market people, money-market-type investors, and ... they're buying
all types of land," said Dale Hermreck, a broker for Realty Executives
who says he sold $21 million worth of farmland in Kansas last year.
"We
have a lot of outside interest from Texas, Chicago, New York," Hermreck
said. "I get calls and inquiries all over the United States."
The Specter Of A Bubble
But
to University of Missouri agriculture economist Ron Plain all of this
sounds a bit like the housing bubble burst of 2006. He is concerned a
similar bubble could be happening in farmland.
"You
get several years going up faster than that long-term trend of 6
percent [annual increases] and you're then in a situation where you're
sort of due for a correction," Plain said. "And the way you correct is
pull those land values down — or 'pop the bubble' ... and so there's
concern about that and it's kind of reasonable to worry."
Plain
said that with mortgage rates at their lowest in 60 years, it's
reasonable to expect the cost of borrowing to go up eventually. And if
crop prices retreat from record highs, he said, that means "less income
per acre and therefore less ability to pay for farmland."
Should
a bubble burst, farmland might be harder to sell, especially compared
with other more liquid investments. But investors argue that any bubble
is still far off, and they believe that farm acreage will remain a solid
long-term investment so long as the demand for food continues to grow.
It
remains to be seen whether investors will be able to compete with
farmers for the small supply of high-quality cropland available in the
Midwest, says broker Hermreck.
"I
have people call me all the time and I just don't have what they're
looking for," Hermreck said. "Simply supply and demand. It's just not
there. I could sell an awful lot more of this land if it was available.
And people seem to hang on to something that's making some money and
real popular. It's just real popular now to own land."
Abbie
Fentress Swanson reports from Missouri for Harvest Public Media, an
agriculture-reporting project involving six NPR member stations in the
Midwest. For more stories about farm and food, check out harvestpublicmedia.org