In Weather Chaos, a Case for Global Warming - NYTimes.com.
The floods battered New England, then Nashville, then Arkansas, then Oklahoma — and were followed by a deluge in Pakistan that has upended the lives of 20 million people.
The summer’s heat waves baked the eastern United States, parts of Africa and eastern Asia, and above all Russia, which lost millions of acres of wheat and thousands of lives in a drought worse than any other in the historical record.
Seemingly disconnected, these far-flung disasters are reviving the question of whether global warming is causing more weather extremes.
The collective answer of the scientific community can be boiled down to a single word: probably.
“The climate is changing,” said Jay Lawrimore, chief of climate analysis at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. “Extreme events are occurring with greater frequency, and in many cases with greater intensity.”
He described excessive heat, in particular, as “consistent with our
understanding of how the climate responds to increasing greenhouse
gases.”
Theory suggests that a world warming up because of those gases will
feature heavier rainstorms in summer, bigger snowstorms in winter, more
intense droughts in at least some places and more record-breaking heat
waves. Scientists and government reports say the statistical evidence
shows that much of this is starting to happen. . . .
If the earth were not warming, random variations in the weather should
cause about the same number of record-breaking high temperatures and
record-breaking low temperatures over a given period. But climatologists
have long theorized that in a warming world, the added heat would cause
more record highs and fewer record lows.
The statistics suggest that is exactly what is happening. In the United States these days, about two record highs are being set for every record low, telltale evidence that amid all the random variation of weather, the trend is toward a warmer climate.
Recall that the US uses a disproportionate percentage of the world's oil and coal, and produces a disproportionate percentage of the world's greenhouse gases.
As poor people around the world -- and not-so-poor people, too -- contemplate America's place in the world, particularly when they are suffering from the effects of extremes of weather, are they likely to be willing to accept the notion that America is somehow special, and that it is the rest of the world that must adjust to us, or will they come to hold us accountable to the rest of the world's people?
When we wrap our minds around the implications of that question, we will come to the question of how we can reduce the demand for the kinds of energy which pollute the world's air.
Part of the answer will come from reducing, even reversing, urban sprawl, and setting our incentives so that our cities get re-developed more quickly and more effectively. This will also be good for the economy, creating jobs in the ongoing redevelopment process and then again in the new buildings created by this redevelopment.
What incentives? Start with the incentives which promote intense use of land well-served by taxpayer-provided infrastructure (highway systems, rail and subway systems, bridges, tunnels, air travel, etc.; water, sanitary sewer, stormwater management, etc.); and services (schools, police, ambulance, firefighting, street-cleaning, trash removal, recycling, public health, courts and prisons; public parking, etc.) Every one of those services serves to increase the value of land within the area served. Most of them contribute more to the land value than they cost. Yet we continue to fund them, in many places, with taxes not on land value but on wages or sales -- stupid taxes, to be blunt about it!
We can settle down and study the problem, or we can continue to do what hasn't worked yet. But not for long, and not for free. Our neighbors in the other 94% of the world are going to start holding us accountable at some point. Do we want to wait until it hits us, or do we want to get out in front of it?
And if we could, via a simple reform in the US, set an example that would contribute to prosperity in other countries, wouldn't we be wise to pursue it?